Comments on: The oppressed Scottish Conservatives (both of them) http://www.generalist.org.uk/blog/2010/the-oppressed-scottish-conservatives-both-of-them/ because we can't think of anything wittier Sun, 05 Feb 2012 03:48:10 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.3 By: cim http://www.generalist.org.uk/blog/2010/the-oppressed-scottish-conservatives-both-of-them/comment-page-1/#comment-383 cim Mon, 22 Mar 2010 09:06:56 +0000 http://www.generalist.org.uk/blog/?p=315#comment-383 It's not just the US that doesn't understand this, it seems. I was listening to Radio 4 on Saturday and their news program had someone discussing the SNP conference, and claiming that they were likely to do badly at this election because third-party votes would get squeezed between Labour and Conservative. It’s not just the US that doesn’t understand this, it seems. I was listening to Radio 4 on Saturday and their news program had someone discussing the SNP conference, and claiming that they were likely to do badly at this election because third-party votes would get squeezed between Labour and Conservative.

]]> By: Andrew http://www.generalist.org.uk/blog/2010/the-oppressed-scottish-conservatives-both-of-them/comment-page-1/#comment-347 Andrew Wed, 17 Mar 2010 13:09:29 +0000 http://www.generalist.org.uk/blog/?p=315#comment-347 In retrospect, I suppose the key test for 538 would be had they managed to predict the <i>2004</i> election at the time using their fancy model. How accurate were their Senate/House predictions compared to a simple average, I wonder? Thanks for the Plaid note... I had, I admit, entirely forgotten that far back. In retrospect, I suppose the key test for 538 would be had they managed to predict the 2004 election at the time using their fancy model. How accurate were their Senate/House predictions compared to a simple average, I wonder?

Thanks for the Plaid note… I had, I admit, entirely forgotten that far back.

]]> By: cim http://www.generalist.org.uk/blog/2010/the-oppressed-scottish-conservatives-both-of-them/comment-page-1/#comment-345 cim Wed, 17 Mar 2010 09:27:32 +0000 http://www.generalist.org.uk/blog/?p=315#comment-345 And then there was <a href='http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/06/march-of-greens-final-voting-today-and.html' rel="nofollow">this one</a> from the EU elections where they decided that it was meaningful to group Plaid with the BNP as "nationalists". I conclude that they don't actually know anything about UK politics, and look forward to more amusement as their election coverage continues. (Then again I thought they were pretty overrated for US election coverage. Their fancy model did give the correct prediction in 49 states, but so did the incredibly simple "average the last two weeks of polls" model that other sites used) And then there was this one from the EU elections where they decided that it was meaningful to group Plaid with the BNP as “nationalists”. I conclude that they don’t actually know anything about UK politics, and look forward to more amusement as their election coverage continues.

(Then again I thought they were pretty overrated for US election coverage. Their fancy model did give the correct prediction in 49 states, but so did the incredibly simple “average the last two weeks of polls” model that other sites used)

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